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Predicting the 2007 Hurricane Season

The forecasters who cried "Hurricane:"

Experts are again predicting a busy Atlantic hurricane season, with up to 17 named tropical storms forming - nine of which could become hurricanes.

At least one major storm is expected to make landfall in the US during the 1 June-30 November season, Colorado State University forecasters said.

Last year, leading forecasters wrongly predicted a bad hurricane season.

However the record-breaking 2005 season saw 15 hurricanes, including Katrina which devastated New Orleans.

 El Nino, which surprised climatologists last year and overturned predictions of a dire hurricane season, has subsided and apparently is not expected to interfere with Atlantic storms this year.  Because of warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, many tropical storms--and subsequently many hurricanes--are expected to form during the 2007 season, which begins in June and lasts through November.

Last year forecasters--including those at the National Hurricane Center--expected 4 to 6 major hurricanes (that is, those which are category 3 or higher).  Only two major hurricanes actually developed, due to the unexpected appearance of El Nino.

 Weather it's rain or hurricanes, it's hard for us small guys to win against forecasters: If we believe them, and they're wrong, we've wasted time and money planning for weather that didn't come.  On the other hand, if we don't believe them and they turn out to be right . . . well, if you were a forecaster wouldn't you say "I told you so," too?

Posted on Monday, April 9, 2007 at 09:27AM by Registered CommenterDaniel James Devine in | CommentsPost a Comment

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